Financial Modelling Services

Integrated Financial Models That Drive Decisions

A financial model is only as useful as the decisions it enables. The Lumen Collective builds integrated three-statement models, linking profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow, that give you a single, consistent view of your business under any set of assumptions.

We focus on models that are practical, auditable and built to be used, not one-off spreadsheets that gather dust after the board meeting.

How We Build

Our modelling approach draws on best practices developed through training and hands-on experience at firms including Grant Thornton and PwC. We build primarily in Excel and Google Sheets, following established conventions for structure, formatting and documentation.

For more complex modelling challenges, we also use Python and AI to increase efficiency, handle larger data sets and solve problems that are difficult or impractical in a spreadsheet environment. This might include Monte Carlo simulations, automated sensitivity analysis across hundreds of scenarios or models that pull directly from live data sources. The result is the rigour of traditional financial modelling combined with the speed and capability of modern tools.

Fundraising Models

When raising equity or debt, investors and lenders expect a model that demonstrates you understand your business economics. We build fundraising models that articulate your revenue drivers and unit economics clearly, project cash requirements and runway under realistic assumptions, incorporate dilution, valuation and return analysis for equity raises, model debt service coverage and covenant compliance for lending discussions, and present cleanly with clearly separated assumptions, calculations and outputs so investors can stress-test scenarios themselves.

Our models support SEIS and EIS advance assurance applications, venture capital raises, angel investment rounds and bank facility negotiations.

Internal Budgets and Forecasts

For day-to-day management, we build rolling forecast and budget models that integrate with your accounting data and provide real-time visibility on performance against plan. These models are designed to be maintained by your team or as part of a fractional finance engagement, with clear documentation and version control.

Regulatory and Capital Planning

For regulated businesses or those with capital adequacy requirements, we build models that project regulatory capital positions under base and stress scenarios, model wind-down costs and timelines to satisfy regulatory requirements, incorporate liquidity buffers and funding gap analysis, and align with ICARA, MIFIDPRU or other relevant regulatory frameworks.

Wind-down planning requires careful modelling of the sequence and timing of cost reduction, contract termination and asset realisation. We build models that give regulators confidence in your planning.

Scenario Analysis

Every model we build includes scenario analysis capability. Rather than producing a single base case, we design models with integrated scenario functionality spanning financial statements including profit and loss sensitivities and balance sheet stress testing, capital and liquidity linking capital adequacy to revenue and cost scenarios, and risk metrics connecting scenario outputs to treasury risk measures such as VaR and CFaR so you can see how market and business risk interact.

Scenarios can be toggled between base, upside, downside and stress cases, with clear presentation of the key drivers and assumptions behind each.